Latar Belakang Exchange Rate Forecasting : Mengapa?

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Transcript presentasi:

EXCHANGE RATES FORECASTING Noer Azam Achsani

Latar Belakang Exchange Rate Forecasting : Mengapa? Exchange Rate Forecasting : Untuk apa? Exchange Rate Determinants Forecasting Methodology Technical Analysis Time Series Methods Econometrics Methods Business Cycles Analysis Judgmental Methods Composite Forecasting Forecasting Evaluation Trend 2009

Exchange Rate Forecasting: Mengapa ? Fluktuasi kurs bisa membuat bisnis perusahaan, bahkan keseluruhan ekonomi suatu negara berantakan. Exchange rates forecasting menjadi bagian penting dalam proses pengambilan keputusan, khususnya bagi negara yang menganut system nilai tukar mengambang bebas (floating exchange rates). Idnetifikasi, observasi dan antisipasi terhadap perubahan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar menjadi sangat crusial, apalagi dunia menjadi semakin terkoneksi sebagai akibat dari globalisasi.

Exchange Rate Forecasting : Untuk apa? Investment and capital budgeting Financing decisions Pricing decisions Strategic planning Government policy Central Bank intervention Hedging Speculation

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