Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 PERMINTAAN AGGREGAT DAN KESEIMBANGAN MAKRO MACRO PowerPoint@Slides Dipersiapkan oleh: Dr. Dede Ruslan,M.Si Medan - 2006 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

PERMINTAAN AGGREGAT DAN KESEIMBANGAN MAKRO

Reference: Blanchard,O.,2003,“Macroeconomic”, Third edition, International edition Dornbush,R.,Fischer,S and Startz, R., 2001,“Macroeconomics”, 8th edition, New York: McGraw-Hill. Mankiw,N.Gregory.,2002,”Macroeco-nomics”, 5nd edition, New York : Worth

Hallo everybody I am glad to meet you

TUJUAN PEMBELAJARAN PENGERTIAN PERMINTAAN AGGREGAT KONSUMSI DAN PERMINTAAN AGGREGAT PERAN SEKTOR PEMERINTAH EFEK PELIPATGANDAAN (MULTIPLIER EFFECT) KESEIMBANGAN MAKRO : 5.1 PEREKONOMIAN TERTUTUP 5.2 PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA 6. STUDI KASUS

PENGERTIAN PERMINTAAN AGGREGAT Suatu jumlah total pengeluaran yang direncanakan (planned spending) atau yang diminta atas barang-barang dan jasa oleh berbagai sektor (RT, firm, Pemerintah) dalam perekonomian. Perekonomian dua sektor (RT dan Firm) Perekonomian tiga sektor(RT,Firm & Gov) Perekomian terbuka

Circular Flow Right here

Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Outline of model A closed economy and Open Economiy, market-clearing model Demand side determinants of C, I, and G in Close determinants of C, I, G and X, M in Open Economy Supply side factor markets (supply, demand, price) determination of output/income Equilibrium goods market in close and open economy loanable funds market DONE  DONE  DONE  Next  Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

The Demand for Goods and Services Total Demand Dijabarkan menjadi barang yang diminta untuk konsumsi (C), Investasi (I), Pengeluaran Pemerintah (G) dan net ekspor (NX) Y = AD = C + I + G + NX When the economy is closed. (X - M = 0) Therefore,

Demand for goods & services Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Demand for goods & services Asumsi 1.Semua perusahaan memproduksi barang yang sama (The Goods Market) 2.Penawaran barang elastis pada tingkat harga P 3.Perekonomian Tertutup :(X - M = 0) sedang terbuka ( X – M )  0 “g & s” is short for “goods & services” Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

Komponen Aggregat Demand C = Permintaan konsumsi atas barang dan jasa I = Permintaan atas barang-barang Investasi G = Permintaan Pemerintah atas barang dan jasa (Ekonomi Tertutup : no NX ) (Ekonomi terbuka : + NX ) NX = net ekspor (NX = X – M) X = Ekspor dan M = Import

The Income-Expenditure Diagram Y=C+I+G+NX

Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Konsumsi, C C = C(YD) adalah persamaan prilaku C = c0 + c1YD c1 = marginal propensity to consume 0 < c1 < 1 Question: What is the meaning of the intercept c0? C0 = C when YD is zero def: The marginal propensity to consume is the increase in C caused by a one-unit increase in disposable income. Again, we are using the short-hand notation that will appear throughout the remaining PowerPoints: X  Y means “an increase in X causes a decrease in Y.” Please feel free to edit slides if you wish to substitute other notation. Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

Disposable Income,YD=Y – T Konsumsi dan Disposable Income Fungsi Konsumsi C (Y –T ) C = c0 + c1YD Konsumsi fungsi dari Y dan T Higher Y increases C, but less than 1 for 1 Higher T decreases C, but less than 1 for 1 Consumption, C Slope dr fungsi Kons adalah MPC. MPC 1 Slope = c1 c0 Disposable Income,YD=Y – T

Box 11.2 - The Consumption Function

Consumption Function C = 150 + 0.75 Yd Tabel 1. Consumption function : Schedul of consumer expenditur C when MPC = 0.75 and a = 150   Change in Consumer Point in Disposable Expenditure DC Figure 1 Income Yd (0.75 x Yd ) Expenditure C (1) (2) (3) (4) A - 150 (=a) B 200 150 300 C 400 450 D 600 E 800 750 F 1000 900 Consumption Function C = 150 + 0.75 Yd

Graphing the Consumption Function

Basic Identities: DI = S + C , so S = DI - C DI is disposible income S is saving C is consumption The marginal propensity to consume MPC = C/DI (slope of consumption line) =  C / Yd > 1  YdC The marginal propensity to save MPS = S/DI (slope of saving line) MPC + MPS = 1

Savings Function - derivation C = a +bY Y = C + S Y = a + bY + S Y - a - bY = S -a + (1 - b)Y = S S = -a + (1-b)Y C = 150 +0.75Y Y = C + S Y = 150 +0.75Y + S Y - 150 -0.75Y = S -150 + (1 -0.75)Y = S S = -150 + 0.25Y

Saving Function S = -150 + 0.25 Yd Tabel 1. Consumption function : Schedul of consumer expenditur C when MPC = 0.75 and a = 150   Change in Consumer Point in Disposable Expenditure DC Figure 1 Income Yd (0.75 x Yd ) Expenditure C (1) (2) (3) (4) A - 150 (=a) B 200 150 300 C 400 450 D 600 E 800 750 F 1000 900 Saving Function S = -150 + 0.25 Yd

Graphing the Saving Function

Investment is an : Exogenous variables Endogenous Variables Variables that are assumed to be given and are not explained within the model I does not respond to changes in production (Y) Endogenous Variables Variables that depend on other variables in the model I is endogenous because it responds to interest rate (r); I = I(r) or I = I0 + I1 (r)

Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Investasi, I Fungsi Investasi adalah I = I (r ), dimana r menunjukkan real interest rate, yaitu tingkat bunga nominal setelah dikurangi inflasi. Real interest rate merupakan  Biaya atas pinjaman  Opportunity cost dari pengunaan dana untuk mengeluaran investasi So, r  I Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

The investment function Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 The investment function r I Pengeluaran atas barang-barang investasi memiliki slope menurun ( downward) I (r ) Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

Pengeluaran Pemerintah, G Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Pengeluaran Pemerintah, G G termasuk government spending atas brg dan jasan. G tidak termasuk transfer payments Asumsi : government spending dan total taxes adalah exogenous: G & T menggambarkan fiscal policy It might be useful to remind students of the meaning of the terms “exogenous” and “transfer payments.” Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

The Determination of Equilibrium Output Demand for Goods (Y) Agg. Demand Demand for Goods (Y) depends on income (Y), taxes (T), investment ( ), and government spending (G) Agg. Supply Supply of Goods (Y)

Equilibrium in the Goods Market 45o line C+I+G C+I Y1 Y C A Y C A Demand (Z), Production (Y) Y1 Income,Y

The equilibrium value of income planned expenditure E =Y E =C +I +G Equilibrium income income, output, Y

Shifts of Planned Expenditure Multiplier effects Multiplier for G Y = 1/(1-MPC) * G Example: MPC = 0.9 Y = 1/(1-0.9) * G Y = 1/(0.1) * G Y = 10 * G

An increase in government purchases Y E E =Y At Y1, there is now an unplanned drop in inventory… E =C +I +G2 E =C +I +G1 G …so firms increase output, and income rises toward a new equilibrium E1 = Y1 Y E2 = Y2

Multiplier Effect Multiplier adalah jumlah yang disebabkan oleh adanya peningkatan secara berturut-turut dalam hasil produksi dari adanya peningkatan dalam permintaan(demand). Bila demand, misalnya, $1 billion lebih tinggi, the total peningkatan dalam produksi setelan n putaran akan meningkatkan permintaan sama dengan $1 billion kali. This sum is called a geometric series.

Box 12.7 - The Multiplier Process

Derivasi Multiplier Cara Diferensial autonomous spending Cara Diferensial Multiplier terhadap Gov.Expenditure Y = G x (1/(1- c1) Perubahan 1 unit dalam pengeluaran pemerintah menyebabkan perubahan dalam pendapatan sebesar : 1 / (1 – c1) unit

Tax multiplier Taxes reduce C and S Increase in G is all spent First round difference leads to different multiplier effects Y = - MPC/(1-MPC)*T

An increase in taxes E C = MPC T Y Y E =C1 +I +G E =C2 +I +G E =Y Y E Initially, the tax increase reduces consumption, and therefore E: E =C1 +I +G E =C2 +I +G At Y1, there is now an unplanned inventory buildup… C = MPC T …so firms reduce output, and income falls toward a new equilibrium E2 = Y2 Y E1 = Y1

Box 12.8 - The Multiplier Effect & Macro Equilibrium

An increase in government purchases Y E E =Y At Y1, there is now an unplanned drop in inventory… E =C +I +G2 E =C +I +G1 G …so firms increase output, and income rises toward a new equilibrium E1 = Y1 Y E2 = Y2

Keseimbangan Makro Perekonomian dua sektor AD = AE Y = C + I Y  C + S Perekonomian tiga sektor (RT,Firm,Gov) Y = C + I + G Y  C + S + T Perekonomian terbuka Y = C + I + G + X - M C+S = C+I S = I C+S+T = C+I+G S+T = I+G X-M = (S-I)+(T-G) Next

Leakages and Injections Another way to equilibrium Income = Expenditure C + S + T = C + I + G S + T = I + G

Private saving Public saving = T - G. Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking about Goods-Market Equilibrium Saving adalah jumlah dari private dengan public saving. Private saving (S), is saving yang dilakukan oleh konsumen Private saving Public saving = T - G. If T > G: budget surplus If T < G: budget deficit

S  I Equilibrium also requires that planned I = planned S S = -a + bY I = I Ye

Sistem Pajak sebagai Automatic Stabilizer Jika pajak tergantung pada income: T = t0 + t1Y So, YD = Y - T = Y - t0 - t1Y Then, Kurangi dengan c1(Y - t1Y) pada kedua sisi, maka

Keseimbangan Ekonomi Terbuka

Keseimbangan Ekonomi Terbuka Pengeluaran Ekspor atas barang dan jasa diasumsikan sebagai exogenous variable yang jumlahnya tetap sepanjang periode waktu Pengeluaran Import merupakan fungsi yang yang positif atas pendapatan riil (real GDP=Y) Bentuk Secara Implisit Bentuk Secara Eksplisit

Keseimbangan Ekonomi Terbuka Bentuk eksplisit menunjukkan bahwa peng. import terdiri dari dua ( 2) komponen, yaitu : 1. Autonomous impor : mo Bagian dari peng. impor yang ditentukan oleh faktor lainnya, (preferences brg domestik dan sing, harga relatif, exchange rate dll) 2. Induced impors : mY Bagian dari total peng. Import yang ditentukan oleh Pend.Nasional (Y)

Keseimbangan Ekonomi Terbuka Y = C + I + G + X – M Y = C(Y-T) + I + G + X – M(Y)

Keseimbangan Ekonomi jika Investasi sebagai variabel Endogen Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Keseimbangan Ekonomi jika Investasi sebagai variabel Endogen Note the only variable in the equilibrium condition that doesn’t have a “bar” over it is the real interest rate. When the full slide is showing, before you advance to the next one, you might want to note that the interest rate is important in financial markets as well, so we will next develop a simple model of the financial system. Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

Contoh Sederhana Investasi diasumsikan teap (konstan), I = 200 Pengeluaran Pemerintah tetap, G = 300 AD = C + I + G In our example, AD = 100 + 0.8Y + 200 + 300, or AD = 600 + 0.8Y Y = AD Y = 600 + 0.8 Y 0.2 Y = 600 Y = 3.000

Analisis Grafik Aggregate Demand AD = Y (AD) AD = 600 + 0.8 Y AD = Y E Slope = D C D Y = MPC = 0.8 600 45 degrees Income or GDP (Y) Y=3000 Equilibrium GDP or Income

Perubahan dalam Government Spending Misal Government Spending (G) naik sebesar 200 units. Tingkat G yang baru adalah : Nilai sebelumnya 300 plus perubahan G (DG) sebesar 200, sehingga G baru = 500 AD = 100 + 0.8Y + 200 + 500, or AD = 800 + 0.8Y Y = AD Y = 800 + 0.8 Y 0.2 Y = 800 Y = 4.000 Keseimbangan Y berada pada GDP baru = 4000

Graph With Increase in Government Spending AD = 800 + 0.8 Y Aggregate Demand (AD) E’ AD = 600 + 0.8 Y E 800 DG = 200 600 45 degrees Income or GDP (Y) Y= 3000 Y= 4000 Equilibrium GDP or Income DY = 1000

Equilibrium GDP with Taxes With T = 0.2Y, and all the other variables as before, once again at equilibrium Y = AD Y = 100 + 0.8Yd + 200 + 300 Y = 100 + 0.8 (Y-T) + 200 + 300 Y = 100 + 0.8(Y- 0.2Y) + 200 + 300 Solving for Y yields, 1666.67

Policy Prescriptions From Keynesian Aggregate Demand Model Increases in Government Expenditure (G), increase AD and hence increase GDP Decreases in Taxes (T) increase AD and hence increase GDP If in a recession (unemployment) increase G or decrease T If in a boom (inflation) decrease G or increase T or some combination of two

Graphical Analysis of Three Sector Economy (with taxes) AD = Y Aggregate Demand (AD) AD = 600 + 0.8 Y E AD’ = 600 + 0.64 Y Slope = (D C/ D Y) E’ = MPC = 0.64 Note: Slope of line has changed when we introduce a tax function 600 GDP (Y) Y=1666.67 Y=3000 Equilibrium GDP (With taxes) Equilibrium GDP (without taxes)

Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 Tabungan Nasional When T > G , budget surplus = (T – G ) = public saving When T < G , budget deficit = (G –T ) and public saving is negative. When T = G , budget is balanced and public saving = 0. Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

Tabungan Nasional Kebijakan fiskal yang expansionary (G or T ) menurunkan national saving (S) Kebijakan fiskal yang contractionary (G or T) menaikkan national saving (S )

Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 The special role of r r adjusts to equilibrate the goods market and the loanable funds market simultaneously: If L.F. market in equilibrium, then Y – C – G = I Add (C +G ) to both sides to get Y = C + I + G (goods market eq’m) Thus, This slide establishes that we can use the loanable funds supply/demand diagram to see how the interest rate that clears the goods market is determined. Explain that the symbol  means each one implies the other. The thing on the left implies the thing on the right, and vice versa. More short-hand: “eq’m” is short for “equilibrium.” Eq’m in L.F. market Eq’m in goods market Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

STUDY KASUS The Reagan Deficits Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 STUDY KASUS The Reagan Deficits Kebijakan Reagan selama alal tahun 1980 an: Peningkatan dlm spending dijaga : G > 0 Besarnya potongan pajak : T < 0 Jadi G > T sehingga menyebabkan defisit budget Menurut model LF dan Pasar Barang, kedua kebijakan tersebut akan mengurangi national saving: Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

1. The Reagan deficits, cont. Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 1. The Reagan deficits, cont. 1. Meningkatnya defisit mengurangi saving… r S, I I (r ) r2 …yang menyebabkan real interest rate naik… r1 3. …yang menyebabkan penurunan dalam investasi. I2 I1 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

Keseimbangan Ekonomi jika Investasi sebagai variabel Endogen dalam close economy

Derivasi AD Curve

Aggregate Demand Determinants Consumption Investment Government Net Exports Money Financial Assets Nonfinancial Markets Financial Aggregate Demand

The Big Picture Keynesian Cross IS curve IS-LM model Explanation of short-run fluctuations Theory of Liquidity Preference LM curve Agg. demand curve Model of Agg. Demand and Agg. Supply Agg. supply curve

Ekonomimakro Lanjutan Medan, 2006 The End You have been a fine audience ! Thank you ! Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si