Kebijakan Industri dan Perdagangan Indonesia Maddaremmeng A. Panennungi www.maddaremmeng.blog.com Staf Pengajar Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia

pendahuluan

Perkembangan Perdagangan Dunia (Milyar USD) Sumber: WTO, seperti dikutip oleh Panennungi, Maddaremmeng, 2009, Welcome to the globalization: A short history of the end of globalization (?)

Investasi Asing Langsung Dunia Sumber: UNCTAD, seperti dikutip dalam Sumber: Panennungi, Maddaremmeng, 2009, Welcome to the globalization: A short history of the end of globalization (?)

Top 20 Negara Penerima Transfer Upah Pekerja Migran, 2004 Sumber: Todaro,2000 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.

Kebijakan industri dan perdagangan indonesia serta ekonomi politik kebijakan industri dan perdagangan

Tingkatan Integrasi Ekonomi Political Union Common government Common currency, harmonized tax rates, common monetary and fiscal policy: EU (partial) Economic Union Level of integration Common Market Factors of production move freely between members Customs Union Common external tariffs Free Trade Free trade between members: NAFTA, ASEAN (partial) Complexity Source: Paul Rodrigue(2005)

Proteksi vs Free Trade Ide Merchantilist vs Ricardo Kecenderungan ISP and EPP Free Trade?: Multilateral, Bilateral, dan Regional

Perkembangan Kebijakan Industri dan Perdagangan Indonesia Redistribusi pendapatan sebagai akibat dari perdagangan: H-O dan Spesific Factor Model Evolusi kebijakan perdagangan Indonesia dan peranan dari kelompok kepentingan Kelompok kepentingan dan kebijakan perdagangan Indonesia

Evolusi Kebijakan Perdagangn Indonesia (Basri,1995, diadaptasi) 1945-1965 1966-1973 1974-1982 1983-1997 1998-2007 Main features Period of independence and nationalization Political consolidation and economic recovery Steady growth, boosted by oil boom, high concentration of political control after MALARI Falling of oil prices, strong deregulation, presidential authority highly personalized Economic crises followed by reformation, decentralization, and democratization The role of interest groups Nationalization and state enterprises formation Inward looking policy Army dominant Private business groups still weak The role interest groups was weak The beginning of outward looking policy Technocrat's influences was high State and Private enterprises grew rapidly in boom condition Rent seekers dispersed around military, Suharto, and bureaucracy, but the role of interest groups relatively weak There is a tendency of import substitution policy to protect basic manufacturing industry Large conglomerates increasingly influential State enterprises under attacked by unpredictability Rent seekers concentrate around president The role of interest groups began to increase The battle between the deregulation and the protection demand Both state and private enterprises have been weakened by the crises Outward looking policy is dominant Influential of International Organization is high A high demand of protection as the consequences of the pro-liberalization policy Source: Adapted from Basri (2001)

Political groups dan kebijakan perdagangan (Basri, 1995, diadaptasi) Period Technocrat's stance & role Economic nationalist stance &role Rent seekers stance & role Foreign institution stance & role Trade policy outcome 1945-1965 Irrelevant Protectionist (strong) 1966-1972 Pro market (moderate) Liberal 1973-1982 Adopted ISI, but relatively pro-market (declining) 1982-1985 Support economic liberalization (increasing) Ambivalence 1985-1990 Pro market&trade reform Relatively Liberal 1990-1997 (relatively strong) 1998-2007 Source: Adapted from Basri (2001)

globalisasi ekonomi indonesia

Perbandingan Penurunan Tarif

Ekspor-Impor Indonesia Sumber: CEIC

Tingkat Keterbukaan Perekonomian Indonesia Sumber: CEIC

Investasi Asing di Indonesia Sumber: CEIC

Isu dan kebijakan industri dan perdagangan indonesia

Masalah dan Kebijakan Korupsi Tingginya cost of capital Administrasi perpajakan Import content Penguasaan teknologi

Masalah dan Kebijakan Rendahnya kualitas SDM Struktur industri dan persaingan yg belum ideal Konsentrasi industri yg masih berpusat di Jawa Biaya Logistik yg tinggi Pungutan liar di mana-mana Tekanan proteksi dari domestik dan negara tujuan ekspor

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