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Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si.

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Presentasi berjudul: "Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si."— Transcript presentasi:

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3 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.Si

4 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI 1.Blanchard,O.,2003,“Macroeconomic”, Third edition, International edition 2.Dornbush,R.,Fischer,S and Startz, R., 2001,“Macroeconomics”, 8th edition, New York: McGraw-Hill. 3.Mankiw,N.Gregory.,2002,”Macroeco- nomics”, 5nd edition, New York : Worth

5 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI

6 TUJUAN PEMBELAJARAN 1.PENGERTIAN PERMINTAAN AGGREGAT 2.KONSUMSI DAN PERMINTAAN AGGREGAT 3.PERAN SEKTOR PEMERINTAH 4.EFEK PELIPATGANDAAN (MULTIPLIER EFFECT) 5.KESEIMBANGAN MAKRO : 5.1 PEREKONOMIAN TERTUTUP 5.2 PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA 6. STUDI KASUS

7 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Suatu jumlah total pengeluaran yang direncanakan (planned spending) atau yang diminta atas barang- barang dan jasa oleh berbagai sektor (RT, firm, Pemerintah) dalam perekonomian. Perekonomian dua sektor (RT dan Firm) Perekonomian tiga sektor(RT,Firm & Gov) Perekomian terbuka PENGERTIAN PERMINTAAN AGGREGAT

8 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Right here Circular Flow

9 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Outline of model A closed economy and Open Economiy, market-clearing model Demand side  determinants of C, I, and G in Close  determinants of C, I, G and X, M in Open Economy Supply side  factor markets (supply, demand, price)  determination of output/income Equilibrium  goods market in close and open economy  loanable funds market DONE Next  DONE

10 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI The Demand for Goods and Services Total Demand When the economy is closed. (X - M = 0) Therefore, Dijabarkan menjadi barang yang diminta untuk konsumsi (C), Investasi (I), Pengeluaran Pemerintah (G) dan net ekspor (NX) Y = AD = C + I + G + NX

11 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Demand for goods & services 1.Semua perusahaan memproduksi barang yang sama (The Goods Market) 2.Penawaran barang elastis pada tingkat harga P 3.Perekonomian Tertutup :(X - M = 0) sedang terbuka ( X – M )  0 Asumsi

12 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Komponen Aggregat Demand C = Permintaan konsumsi atas barang dan jasa I = Permintaan atas barang-barang Investasi G = Permintaan Pemerintah atas barang dan jasa (Ekonomi Tertutup : no NX ) (Ekonomi terbuka : + NX ) NX = net ekspor (NX = X – M) X = Ekspor dan M = Import

13 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI The Income-Expenditure Diagram Y=C+I+G+NX

14 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Konsumsi, C C = C(Y D ) adalah persamaan prilaku C = c 0 + c 1 Y D c 1 = marginal propensity to consume 0 < c 1 < 1 Question: What is the meaning of the intercept c 0 ? C 0 = C when Y D is zero def: The marginal propensity to consume is the increase in C caused by a one-unit increase in disposable income.

15 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Konsumsi dan Disposable Income Disposable Income,Y D= Y – T Consumption, C Fungsi Konsumsi C (Y –T ) C = c 0 + c 1 Y D Slope = c 1 c0c0 MPC 1 Slope dr fungsi Kons adalah MPC.  Konsumsi fungsi dari Y dan T  Higher Y increases C, but less than 1 for 1  Higher T decreases C, but less than 1 for 1

16 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Box The Consumption Function

17 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Consumption Function C = Yd Tabel 1. Consumption function : Schedul of consumer expenditur C when MPC = 0.75 and a = 150 Change inChange in Change in ConsumerConsumer Point inDisposable Expenditure CExpenditure CConsumer Figure 1Income Yd (0.75 x Yd )(0.75 x Yd )Expenditure C (1)(2) (3)(3)(4) A (=a) B C D E F

18 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Graphing the Consumption Function

19 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Basic Identities: DI = S + C, so S = DI - C DI is disposible income S is saving C is consumption The marginal propensity to consume MPC =  C/  DI (slope of consumption line) =  C /  Yd > 1  Yd  C  The marginal propensity to save MPS =  S/  DI (slope of saving line) MPC + MPS = 1

20 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Savings Function - derivation C = a +bY Y = C + S Y = a + bY + S Y - a - bY = S -a + (1 - b)Y = S S = -a + (1-b)Y C = Y Y = C + S Y = Y + S Y Y = S ( )Y = S S = Y

21 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Saving Function S = Yd Tabel 1. Consumption function : Schedul of consumer expenditur C when MPC = 0.75 and a = 150 Change inChange in Change in ConsumerConsumer Point inDisposable Expenditure CExpenditure CConsumer Figure 1Income Yd (0.75 x Yd )(0.75 x Yd )Expenditure C (1)(2) (3)(3)(4) A (=a) B C D E F

22 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Graphing the Saving Function

23 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Investment is an : Exogenous variables Variables that are assumed to be given and are not explained within the model I does not respond to changes in production (Y)  Endogenous Variables Variables that depend on other variables in the model I is endogenous because it responds to interest rate (r); I = I(r) or I = I 0 + I 1 (r) Investment (I)

24 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Investasi, I Fungsi Investasi adalah I = I (r ), dimana r menunjukkan real interest rate, yaitu tingkat bunga nominal setelah dikurangi inflasi. Real interest rate merupakan Biaya atas pinjaman Opportunity cost dari pengunaan dana untuk mengeluaran investasi So,  r   I

25 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI The investment function r I I (r )I (r ) Pengeluaran atas barang-barang investasi memiliki slope menurun ( downward)

26 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Pengeluaran Pemerintah, G G termasuk government spending atas brg dan jasan. G tidak termasuk transfer payments Asumsi : government spending dan total taxes adalah exogenous: G & T menggambarkan fiscal policy

27 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI The Determination of Equilibrium Output Demand for Goods (Y) Demand for Goods (Y) depends on income (Y), taxes (T), investment ( ), and government spending (G) Agg. Demand Supply of Goods (Y) Agg. Supply

28 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Equilibrium in the Goods Market Income,Y Demand (Z), Production (Y) 45 o line Y C A Y Y1Y1 Y1Y1 Y C A Y C+I C+I+G

29 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI The equilibrium value of income income, output, Y E planned expenditure E =Y E =C +I +G Equilibrium income

30 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Shifts of Planned Expenditure Multiplier effects Multiplier for G  Y = 1/(1-MPC) *  G Example: MPC = 0.9  Y = 1/(1-0.9) *  G  Y = 1/(0.1) *  G  Y = 10 *  G

31 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI An increase in government purchases Y E E =Y E =C +I +G 1 E 1 = Y 1 E =C +I +G 2 E 2 = Y 2 YY At Y 1, there is now an unplanned drop in inventory… …so firms increase output, and income rises toward a new equilibrium GG

32 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Multiplier Effect Multiplier adalah jumlah yang disebabkan oleh adanya peningkatan secara berturut-turut dalam hasil produksi dari adanya peningkatan dalam permintaan(demand). Bila demand, misalnya, $1 billion lebih tinggi, the total peningkatan dalam produksi setelan n putaran akan meningkatkan permintaan sama dengan $1 billion kali. This sum is called a geometric series.

33 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Box The Multiplier Process

34 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Derivasi Multiplier Multiplier terhadap Gov.Expenditure  Y =  G x (1/(1- c 1 ) multiplierautonomous spending Perubahan 1 unit dalam pengeluaran pemerintah menyebabkan perubahan dalam pendapatan sebesar : 1 / (1 – c 1 ) unit Cara Diferensial

35 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Tax multiplier Taxes reduce C and S Increase in G is all spent First round difference leads to different multiplier effects  Y = - MPC/(1-MPC)*  T

36 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI An increase in taxes Y E E =Y E =C 2 +I +G E 2 = Y 2 E =C 1 +I +G E 1 = Y 1 YY At Y 1, there is now an unplanned inventory buildup… …so firms reduce output, and income falls toward a new equilibrium  C =  MPC  T Initially, the tax increase reduces consumption, and therefore E:

37 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Box The Multiplier Effect & Macro Equilibrium

38 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI An increase in government purchases Y E E =Y E =C +I +G 1 E 1 = Y 1 E =C +I +G 2 E 2 = Y 2 YY At Y 1, there is now an unplanned drop in inventory… …so firms increase output, and income rises toward a new equilibrium GG

39 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Keseimbangan Makro Perekonomian dua sektor AD = AE Y = C + I Y  C + S Perekonomian tiga sektor (RT,Firm,Gov) Y = C + I + G Y  C + S + T Perekonomian terbuka Y = C + I + G + X - M C+S = C+I S = I C+S+T = C+I+G S+T = I+G X-M = (S-I)+(T-G) Next

40 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Leakages and Injections Another way to equilibrium Income = Expenditure C + S + T = C + I + G S + T = I + G

41 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Investment Equals Saving: An Alternative Way of Thinking about Goods-Market Equilibrium Saving adalah jumlah dari private dengan public saving. Private saving (S), is saving yang dilakukan oleh konsumen  Public saving = T - G.  If T > G: budget surplus  If T < G: budget deficit Private saving

42 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI S  I Equilibrium also requires that planned I = planned S I = I S = -a + bY YeYe

43 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Sistem Pajak sebagai Automatic Stabilizer Jika pajak tergantung pada income: T = t 0 + t 1 Y So, Y D = Y - T = Y - t 0 - t 1 Y Then, Kurangi dengan c 1 (Y - t 1 Y) pada kedua sisi, maka

44 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Keseimbangan Ekonomi Terbuka

45 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Keseimbangan Ekonomi Terbuka Pengeluaran Ekspor atas barang dan jasa diasumsikan sebagai exogenous variable yang jumlahnya tetap sepanjang periode waktu Pengeluaran Import merupakan fungsi yang yang positif atas pendapatan riil (real GDP=Y) Bentuk Secara Implisit Bentuk Secara Eksplisit

46 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Bentuk eksplisit menunjukkan bahwa peng. import terdiri dari dua ( 2) komponen, yaitu : 1. Autonomous impor : m o Bagian dari peng. impor yang ditentukan oleh faktor lainnya, (preferences brg domestik dan sing, harga relatif, exchange rate dll) 2. Induced impors : mY Bagian dari total peng. Import yang ditentukan oleh Pend.Nasional (Y) Keseimbangan Ekonomi Terbuka

47 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Keseimbangan Ekonomi Terbuka Y = C + I + G + X – M Y = C(Y-T) + I + G + X – M(Y)

48 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Keseimbangan Ekonomi jika Investasi sebagai variabel Endogen

49 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI  Investasi diasumsikan teap (konstan), I = 200  Pengeluaran Pemerintah tetap, G = 300 AD = C + I + G In our example,  AD = Y , or  AD = Y  Y = AD  Y = Y  0.2 Y = 600  Y = Contoh Sederhana

50 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Analisis Grafik Income or GDP (Y) Aggregate Demand (AD) AD = Y 600 Slope =  C  Y  MPC = 0.8 AD = Y E Y=3000 Equilibrium GDP or Income 45 degrees

51 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Perubahan dalam Government Spending Misal Government Spending (G) naik sebesar 200 units. Tingkat G yang baru adalah : Nilai sebelumnya 300 plus perubahan G (  G) sebesar 200, sehingga G baru = 500 AD = Y , or AD = Y Y = AD Y = Y 0.2 Y = 800 Y = Keseimbangan Y berada pada GDP baru = 4000

52 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Graph With Increase in Government Spending Income or GDP (Y) Aggregate Demand (AD) AD = Y 600 E Y= 3000 Equilibrium GDP or Income 45 degrees AD = Y 800  G = 200 E’ Y= 4000  Y = 1000

53 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Equilibrium GDP with Taxes With T = 0.2Y, and all the other variables as before, once again at equilibrium Y = AD Y = Yd Y = (Y-T) Y = (Y- 0.2Y) Solving for Y yields,

54 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Policy Prescriptions From Keynesian Aggregate Demand Model Increases in Government Expenditure (G), increase AD and hence increase GDP Decreases in Taxes (T) increase AD and hence increase GDP If in a recession (unemployment) increase G or decrease T If in a boom (inflation) decrease G or increase T or some combination of two

55 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Graphical Analysis of Three Sector Economy (with taxes) GDP (Y) AD’ = Y 600  MPC = 0.64 AD = Y Y= Equilibrium GDP (With taxes) Aggregate Demand (AD) Note: Slope of line has changed when we introduce a tax function E Y=3000 Equilibrium GDP (without taxes) AD = Y Slope = (  C/  Y) E’

56 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI When T > G, budget surplus = (T – G ) = public saving When T < G, budget deficit = (G –T ) and public saving is negative. When T = G, budget is balanced and public saving = 0. Tabungan Nasional

57 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Tabungan Nasional Kebijakan fiskal yang expansionary (G  or T  ) menurunkan national saving (S  ) Kebijakan fiskal yang contractionary (G  or T  ) menaikkan national saving (S  )

58 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI The special role of r r adjusts to equilibrate the goods market and the loanable funds market simultaneously: If L.F. market in equilibrium, then Y – C – G = I Add (C +G ) to both sides to get Y = C + I + G (goods market eq’m) Thus, r adjusts to equilibrate the goods market and the loanable funds market simultaneously: If L.F. market in equilibrium, then Y – C – G = I Add (C +G ) to both sides to get Y = C + I + G (goods market eq’m) Thus, Eq’m in L.F. market Eq’m in goods market

59 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI STUDY KASUS The Reagan Deficits Kebijakan Reagan selama alal tahun 1980 an:  Peningkatan dlm spending dijaga :  G > 0  Besarnya potongan pajak :  T < 0  Jadi  G >  T sehingga menyebabkan defisit budget Menurut model LF dan Pasar Barang, kedua kebijakan tersebut akan mengurangi national saving:

60 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI 1. The Reagan deficits, cont. r S, I I (r )I (r ) r1r1 I1I1 r2r2 2.…yang menyebabkan real interest rate naik… I2I2 3.…yang menyebabkan penurunan dalam investasi. 1.Meningkatnya defisit mengurangi saving…

61 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Keseimbangan Ekonomi jika Investasi sebagai variabel Endogen dalam close economy

62 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Derivasi AD Curve

63 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI Aggregate Demand Determinants Consumption Investment Government Net Exports Money Financial Assets Nonfinancial Markets Financial Markets Aggregate Demand

64 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI The Big Picture Keynesian Cross Theory of Liquidity Preference IS curve LM curve IS-LM model Agg. demand curve Agg. supply curve Model of Agg. Demand and Agg. Supply Explanation of short-run fluctuations

65 Copyright © 2005 Prepared By Dr. Dede Ruslan, M.SI The End


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